STOKE-ON-TRENT, UNITED KINGDOM – MAY 04: Leicester fans look dejected after todays draw sees them relegated to League One next season after the Coca-Cola Championship match between Stoke City and Leicester City at Britannia Stadium on May 4, 2008 in Stoke, England. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

EPL Relegation Battle: Who’ll Beat the Drop?

So Who Survives the Drop

At this point, we can agree that Leicester look far and away the most likely to be relegated. They are four points behind the next closest competition and, even with a game in hand, have lost more games than any other team except QPR. While they also have arguably the easiest schedule, they also have the most six pointers. This can be a blessing if you are able to win them, but I just can’t see Leicester pulling it off.

Looking at the stats, it would appear that we can rule out Sunderland from being relegated. They have roughly as easy a schedule as their competitors, play against the fewest top teams, and have the fewest six pointers. This means the majority of their games are against teams that are safely midtable. They should be able to squeak enough points to be safe from relegation.

That leaves Aston Villa, QPR, and Burnley left. With two more spots, it becomes a really interesting race. QPR has an advantage, as they have a game in hand. That being said, though, they also look like a team in turmoil. Rarely do they ever seem to be like a cohesive team and it is really down to the efforts of Charlie Austin that they even have 22 points. QPR will also face the two title contenders (Man City and Chelsea) and the in form team in the league (Liverpool). They also have arguably the harder of the six pointer games, with three of the four games being against teams currently above them in the table. The majority of the top team games and the six point games also are away games for QPR, making it even less likely they’ll get a result. They’ll be the second team to face relegation.

Now it comes down to that final spot. Burnley or Aston Villa? Presently, Burnley are 3 points behind Aston Villa. Both teams play 4 top teams and have an equal number of six pointers. The average point total is also only .3 different. So here, we have teams with roughly the same difficulty in schedules with very similar point totals. I’m going to go for the shocker here, and say it will be Burnley that survive relegation this season. Aston Villa have been pitiful on the road this season, with almost half of their losses coming from away matches. That doesn’t bode well for them, with the majority of their difficult fixtures coming away from home. Burnley, on the other hand, have shown that they have a lot of fight left in them. This was seen in the Liverpool game (where they lost 2-0 but threatened a few times) and the recent Chelsea game where they draw the league leaders 1-1. This is reminiscent of the Sunderland squad last season that looked destined for relegation until they turned on the style in the dying weeks of the season. This will all culminate in the final game of these two teams’ seasons where they actually play each other. Winner of this game will survive relegation and the loser will be damned to the drop. Looking at Burnley’s history with big games, Aston Villa’s poor form, and that I particularly don’t rate Tim Sherwood highly as a manager, I predict it will be Burnley that survive.

About Jeff Snyder

Jeff Snyder is a professional writer and has been in sports broadcast for almost half a decade. You can follow him on Twitter at @TheJackAnty.

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