Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way. If the results were reversed, you wouldn’t have seen the same two managers on the field the next season. I’m sure Sir Alex Ferguson was thinking about retirement for a while. When Manchester United got beaten, Fergie likely didn’t want to retire like that. It’s very much realistic that he would’ve retired a year earlier than he really did if United had won the title instead of City. He retired at the end of the 2012-13 season as United won the EPL title. Fergie had to wait another season to go out a winner.
On the other hand, City winning the EPL title was the only way Roberto Mancini kept his job. The win bought Mancini another year and just like with Fergie’s retirement at the end of the 2012-13 season, Mancini was sacked after finishing 2nd and losing the FA Cup Final. Reverse the results of 2011-12 and this very well could’ve all happened a year earlier. While there can be some debate as to whether Fergie would still stay another year even if United won, Mancini would’ve for sure been sacked if he had not won the title.
As far as which managers would take over for the two teams for the 2012-13, that’s a much tougher question to answer. Andre Villas-Boas, Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Martinez were at least heavily rumored to be available at that time. All three people, as well as others, would’ve made great fits with either Manchester teams.
One thing we do know is that Manchester United would’ve been a year younger than when David Moyes actually took over the team. Ferguson likes to refute this, but the Manchester United team that Fergie left Moyes was a virtual museum. That was an old team and Fergie was the father figure manager that the players would run through a brick wall for. The Manchester United team that won in 2012-13 shouldn’t have won the title. That was all Fergie and his ability to get the best out of those aging players and get them to play as if they were 10 years younger. David Moyes didn’t do himself any favors by not signing many players and those he did sign, Marouane Fellaini and Juan Mata had rather lackluster performances at that time. Maybe it didn’t matter who was replacing Fergie because it would be tough for anyone to replace a legend and especially get a legends players to play under you but Moyes, or anyone, would’ve had a better shot at keeping Manchester United high up if everyone on the team was a year younger.
At the very least, we would’ve seen United have their embarrassing season a year early and likely would’ve seen this improvement this year, during last year. Why is that important? Last year was the first year with the new EPL and Champions League TV contract. All in all, if Fergie had retired a year earlier than he did and let’s say Manchester United gives the same performance but only a year earlier and let’s say they finish 4th this year, United lost a total of around £7 million. That looks like a drop in the bucket but £7 million is no laughing matter when it comes to a team as debt fueled as Manchester United. Champions League revenue gets to be even tougher to determine so I won’t even try to figure that out. But a safe estimate would be to at least double that, so add £14 million to the £7 mil.
With Manchester City, having a manager change would be a safer and smoother transition compared to Manchester United. But like with any transition, that may not be that smooth. It worked out with Manuel Pellegrini taking over for Roberto Mancini at the end of the 2012-13 season but making these moves a year earlier can have very different consequences. At the end, I can’t see too much of a different course of action and performance if Manchester City had fired Mancini a year before. If the results were reversed, Ferguson retired and Manchester United didn’t win the 2012-13 EPL title, Manchester City was in 2nd so they very likely would’ve switched title runs.
Like I said, it’s very difficult to predict what would’ve happened if Manchester United won the EPL title in 2012. It’s fun to speculate these kinds of things but it probably would’ve been very different. It’s like the basic plot for any story that has to do with time travel. If you go back in time and do even the most insignificant thing, there can be drastic consequences.
