For as much as the table sort of looks just like we thought it would (Leicester and Chelsea aside of course) this still has been one of the craziest Premier League seasons ever. We used to at least have a sense of what was going to happen. Some teams were just unbelievable at home and no matter who the visitor was, the home team still had a fighting chance. But not this year.
This season has been crazy because for the most part home teams haven’t been winning. Out of the 150 matches played in the Premier League this season the home team has won just 55 of them. That’s only five more then the 50 matches away teams have won. That tells us that for any given match any team can win.
With that, allow me to be crazy enough to try and win you some money.
Crystal Palace (+150)
Southampton (+180)
Draw (+230)
Speaking of teams that have struggled at home. Remember when Selhurst Park was supposed to be a tough place to play? Well the Eagles have actually lost (4) more games at home then they’ve won (3). On the flip side, remember when Southampton were quietly just winning games and picking up points while no one paid attention to them a few months ago? Well they’ve quietly stopped doing that as they haven’t won a game in a month, and they’ve had some very suspect defending along the way. However you also have to look at Palace’s recent record and, 5-1 win against Newcastle aside, they haven’t exactly been pouring on the goals either. I’ll take draw (+230).
Manchester City (-344)
Swansea (+800)
Draw (+475)
Why am I writing about Manchester City taking on lowly Swansea when there is no value in taking City? Last time City faced a team without a manager they got a lackluster draw with Aston Villa. Now I don’t think Swansea will pull off the upset. It’s because this game has “stay away” written all over it.
The numbers to look at here is City will still be without Vincent Kompany. In the seven league games Kompany has played, City have conceded one goal. In the seven league games he hasn’t played, City have conceded a whopping 15. My advice to you, parlay “both teams will score” (-120) with “Manchester City will not keep a clean sheet” (-145). You’re welcome.
Bournemouth (+220)
Manchester United (+125)
Draw (+230)
Nothing about this line makes sense. You would never have thought Manchester United would be getting positive money away to Bournemouth but that’s how far Louis van Gaal has brought the club down. However a draw being the biggest underdog? Do the bookies not know that one out of every two United games (five of the last 10 in all competitions) end 0-0?
United are dealing with a ton of injuries which may force Louis van Gaal to actually use Michael Carrick (which would be the one thing the Red Devils have going for them). Nowhere have the Reds been hit harder then in the back, where they are now missing all their senior full backs and all their senior center backs except for holding midfielder converted to left back converted to center back Daley Blind. Even the great David de Gea will have trouble keeping a clean sheet in this one, and I don’t think United have a goal in them tomorrow. Crazy as it sounds I like Bournemouth to knock off Chelsea and United in back to back weeks. *Upset alert* Bournemouth (+220).
Leicester City (+195)
Chelsea (+135)
Draw (+240)
Did you ever think that in December you would see the top team in the league be underdogs at home to the team that’s in 14th? Well we are and my question of course is, why? Are we just forgetting that since the month of November started Chelsea have score one goal in the Premier League? ONE!
I know it would be so ironic for Chelsea to go into Leicester and actually get the win since they can’t beat any of the bad teams this season, but I feel like everyone is almost expecting that to happen. Sorry, I’m not one of those people. Take Leicester (+195).
Other lines
I think Spurs are sitting on an offensive explosion against a little too confident Newcastle side. Dabbing in Spurs to score three goals (+280) or even four goals (+375) is pretty worthwhile. West Ham haven’t been able to score recently and they face very good at defense and coming off a huge win Stoke City (+180). Don’t be scared about it being an away game, since away clubs seem to win just as often as home teams, I’ll take Everton (+147) at Norwich.
Good luck!
(Remember that this is for entertainment purposes only. Know the risks of gambling and results may vary. Good luck.)
