Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC
Quick overview: Neither team is in particularly good form entering this early-round contest. Sixth-seed Philadelphia enter this matchup having not won since August 27th, while Toronto come in having seen their defense falter and their attack lose some luster over the past month and a half. TFC are in much better shape, however, with the best player in the league returning just a couple weeks ago.
Key players:
Sebastian Giovinco — The best player in MLS is back and better than ever, with a dominant Jozy Altidore as his partner and a goal-scoring touch that never really went away. He will continue to be the difference-maker for TFC as they rely his movement alongside Altidore to produce chances on goal.
The key, then, is getting him touches on the ball in advanced positions; in other words, the Toronto midfield has to be able to advance the ball and get it on his feet without him having to drop deep. Jonathan Osorio has struggled to do that, and when Giovinco is forced to come back to midfield to pick up the ball, opponents are able to smother Altidore up top. In the 4-4-2 diamond, they don’t have wingers who can make up this attacking deficit.
Eriq Zavaleta — TFC’s recent defensive issues are more of a product of midfield instability and defensive tactics than of individual player errors (after all, Justin Morrow and Drew Moor are best XI candidates).
But 24-year old center back Eriq Zavaleta has had his own problems of late, hitting a figurative Keegan Rosenberry-like wall. Improvements from him as well as others are crucial for TFC.
C.J. Sapong — The Union have not looked great recently. They haven’t been able to create penetration in the attack, they often get overrun in midfield, and Rosenberry has struggled of late on the backline. You could reasonably say that they are the worst team in the playoff field.
To change this, they absolutely have to get Sapong up and running again. The lone striker in Philly’s 4-2-3-1, Sapong got off to fast start — scoring six goals in the first half of the season, earning himself a spot on the all-star team — but has since tailed off, with just one goal since July 17. He is the focal point of their attack, playing like a traditional No. 9 and using hold-up play to open up space for teammates, and when he’s out of the lineup or struggling to produce, Philadelphia flounder. And that’s what they’ve been doing for the past couple months.
Prediction: Toronto will cruise. They are the home team, their best player is playing like it, and they are pretty clearly the better team. Tranquillo Barnetta will play his last MLS match at BMO Field.
LA Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake
Quick overview: This is another game that features two clubs that are not playing their best soccer. LA don’t have a true go-to lineup and give up way too many shots, while RSL are a one dimensional attacking team with various key players showing their age.
Key players:
Jeff Larentowicz — Since Nigel de Jong slide tackled his way out of Carson, Bruce Arena has been forced to use 33-year old MLS journeyman Jeff Larentowicz as his d-mid, due to lack of a better option. As his age suggests, he is not the most mobile of defenders, which is not a great trait to have if you’re going to play as a lone No. 6 in the MLS playoffs.
We’ll see if Real Salt Lake are able to exploit this. They’ll have to get Javier Morales on the run in the midfield and Yura Movsisyan to play like the No. 9 he should be in order to do this.
Javier Morales — Speaking of JaviMo, Morales is a major key player for RSL. I wrote about why he is important just a couple days ago over at LAG Confidential:
Javier Morales is supposed to be their central chance-creator, but he is unable to be the top playmaker with the defensive responsibilities he has to handle in the 4-3-3 formation; he’s 36 and can’t run all day any more. Without him playing like the JaviMo of old, they are forced to play through skillful wingers Joao Plata and Burrito Martinez. That’s not something that holds up against the more elite teams in this league.
RSL need Morales to control the midfield more effectively and to carry the ball himself into the final third, rather than have Plata or Martinez go 1v1 with Ashley Cole and Robbie Rogers all day. If he can’t do that, LA will snuff out their attacks in a hurry.
Jamison Olave/Chris Schuler — I include two players here because one of them will likely play alongside Justen Glad in central defense as a replacement for the injured Aaron Maund, who was having a breakout season until an injury derailed it. Neither the veteran Olave nor USL regular Schuler has done a whole lot to secure that spot on the backline. It would go a long way for RSL if one of them can help solidify the backline.
Prediction: LA will win, although without a whole lot of fireworks. A Gio dos Santos long-shot goal with a half-hour left seems poised to win this game.
